give advance warning

New system could predict solar flares, give advance warning. Researchers may have discovered a new method to predict solar flares more than a day before they occur, providing advance warning to help protect satellites, power grids and astronauts from potentially dangerous radiation.

This influence can wax and wane due to seasonal changes in the Earth's distance from the sun and also during solar flares, according to the theory, which is supported by data published in a dozen research papers since it was proposed in 2006, said Ephraim Fischbach, a Purdue University professor of physics. He stressed that what was being seen was a “very different pattern” than the H1N1 HA visualization.

With Ebola, a huge increase in count was seen in 2013, going from 1 or 2 to 25. All rights reserved. © 2020 MJH Life Sciences™ and Contagion Live. In an updated abstract, Dr. Bogoch shared that Zika gene mutations are continuing to increase. Threats that all remaining civilians would be considered liable to attack have been condemned and withdrawn. The phenomenon represents a possible way to predict solar flares, allowing satellite and power grid operators to take steps to minimize impact and astronauts to take cover from potentially lethal charged particles emitted during solar storms, Fischbach said. Wastewater sampling for coronavirus on campus and in the surrounding community could alert University decision makers to a potential outbreak several days before individuals exhibit symptoms of an infection.

With this information, researchers will be able to track Zika and predict when potential outbreaks will occur, thus providing more time for pre-outbreak public health response as well as the development of “made-to-measure” vaccines. Jenkins, monitoring a detector in his lab in 2006, discovered that the decay rate of a radioactive sample changed slightly 39 hours before a large solar flare. The first depicted how Replikins can be visualized through 3D x-ray diffraction.

Furthermore, as of February 20, 2017, 54 Zika Replikin Strains have been detected. State practice indicates that all obligations with respect to the principle of distinction and the conduct of hostilities remain applicable even if civilians remain in the zone of operations after a warning has been issued.

The obligation to give effective advance warning prior to an attack which may affect the civilian population is a long-standing rule of customary international law already recognized in the Lieber Code, the Brussels Declaration and the Oxford Manual. While Additional Protocol II does not include an explicit reference to the obligation to give effective advance warning prior to an attack which may affect the civilian population, more recent treaty law applicable in non-international armed conflicts does so, namely Amended Protocol II to the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons.

Large solar flares may produce a "coronal mass ejection" of highly energetic particles, which can interact with the Earth's magnetosphere, triggering geomagnetic storms that sometimes knock out power. Dr. Bogoch shared that this was probably the first local "pandemic that was tracked in real-time from its first signs of x-ray diffraction through to its high point in 2009.” He said, “So, we actually had a few years of warning of this coming.”. Zika is following more of a time-course 2 pattern, according to Dr. Bogoch. He then showed the audience an example plotting the individual specimen Replikin counts of Ebola in 2013-2014 and how they helped to predict the 2014-2015 outbreak and cessation. Just give us some money and we’ll make you some vaccine.’ The vaccine always comes just about when the epidemic is leaving. So where it is possible to give civilians in the area some advance warning of forthcoming attacks, the attacking party should do so. Dr. Bogoch feels that Replikin technology reduces the pathogen’s advantage of completely surprisng the world once an epidemic hits.

The initiative — part of Penn State’s multilayered approach to test, monitor and mitigate for COVID-19 — could enable leaders to take swift actions to minimize the virus’s Conference | First International Zika Conference. Furthermore, the rule provides that warnings must only be given of attacks which may affect the civilian population.

On February 23, 2017, the first day of the First International Zika Conference, held in Washington, DC, Samuel Bogoch, MD, PhD, professor of Emergency Medicine at Boston University School of Medicine, chairman at Replikins LLC, Foundation for Research on the Nervous System, explained to a room full of interested conference-goers how Replikins, a class of peptide sequences, can be used to give advanced warning of outbreaks and their cessation. Hence, the UK Military Manual considers that no warning is required if no civilians are left in the area to be attacked. Replikins are a group of gene peptides that are associated with rapid replication; they are 7 to 50 amino acids long and are sequences that are “specific to amino acids, and spaces between” that are “identified and counted by an automated process.” Perhaps one of the most important takeaways that Dr. Bogoch drove home was that, “Replikin concentration increases before outbreaks and decreases before cessation.”.

The obligation to give effective advance warning prior to an attack which may affect the civilian population is a long-standing rule of customary international law already recognized in the Lieber Code, the Brussels Declaration and the Oxford Manual. The new detection technique is based on a theory that radioactive decay rates are influenced by solar activity, possibly streams of subatomic particles called solar neutrinos. We won't give US advance warning of Iran strike, says Israel Message on military action against nuclear facilities strains relations between allies.

However, as of December 4, 2016, 49 Zika strains were detected. It has also stated that such a general warning can consist of a blanket alert delivered by broadcast advising the civilian population to stay away from certain military objectives. He explained, “We don’t expect it to have a sudden drop…Despite the slight decline globally, Brazil Replikin counts continue to increase, indicating possible [a] repeat epidemic in Brazil in the coming summer season.”. Wednesday 29 February 2012 01:00. “You realize that for centuries we have shown surprise any time any old outbreak happens; it’s a chronic repeat. © International Committee of the Red Cross.

Ebola illustrated the “time-course I” pattern in that there was a “rapid” increase in Replikin count and gene mutations (at p<.001) “within 1-2 years in advance of the clinical outbreaks with high mortality, (40-70% in this case), followed by rapid cessation of gene change within the year of the outbreak, followed promptly by rapid cessation of the outbreak, and no recurrence within two years.” The H1N1 influenza pandemic of 2009-2010 illustrated the “time-course 1” pattern in that there was a gradual increase in Replikin count/gene mutations (at p<.001) “over a period greater than two years in advance of the clinical outbreak, followed by gradual cessation of both the gene change and of the clinical outbreak, followed by annual endemic recurrences.”. All rights reserved. “You can see the beginning pre-outbreak, you have a rise in the Replikin count from about 3 up to 8 and that was the one that got a little bit of attention because we predicted a year before the outbreak of the pandemic that it was going to occur and it did occur,” Dr. Bogoch explained. The last example plotted H1N1 HA individual specimens in Mexico and New Mexico according to year. In fact, they “markedly” increased in 2016 “as evidenced by the appearance of new Zika Replikin Strains.” Between 2000 and 2010, there were only 3 Zika strains and from 2010 to 2015 there were 12 different strains that were detected by different methods. Fischbach and Jere Jenkins, a nuclear engineer and director of radiation laboratories in the School of Nuclear Engineering, are leading research to study the phenomenon and possibly develop a new warning system. “You may think that this has nothing to do with Zika, but what it does do is show us that if you get enough samples and they are done carefully—year by year—and you do the Replikin counts, the rise in Replikin counts are followed by a rise in the number of cases of this disease,” Dr. Bogoch stated. © 2020 MJH Life Sciences and Contagion Live. There is a duty to give advance warning of an attack that “may” affect the civilian population, unless circumstances do not permit. Catrina Stewart. This rate of decay is widely believed to be constant, but recent findings challenge that long-accepted rule.

Since then, researchers at Purdue have seen similar variation in decay rates before solar flares. “This means that we are in a very active heterogeneous time of mutation because you have to have mutation to make a structured change in the gene and when you see that, you know you’re in for big trouble if your vaccine is based upon genes from the years before 2016,” according to Dr. Bogoch.

Dr. Bogoch went on to explain that this visualization, or “visual imprint,” is supported by the Replikin count which was depicted to increase from 3.2 in 2001, to 5.5 in 2005, to a whopping 10.1 in 2009. For the H1N1 pandemic, Dr. Bogoch showed how this method could illustrate the H1N1 HA gene increasing before the 2009 outbreak actually occurred. However, the obligation to provide a warning takes into account the circumstances at the time of the attack and the feasibility of issuing a warning.

State practice establishes this rule as a norm of customary international law applicable in both international and non-international armed conflicts.

The second example consisted of the mean and standard deviation of the concentration (Replikin count) pertaining to hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreaks in China.


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