the next pandemic

“Give ’em a hug and kiss. Our health system has, for the most part, responded well to COVID-19. A panel of public health experts and U.S. senators agreed on several steps Congress should take to prevent or remediate the next pandemic, basing their proposals on lessons learned during the 14 months working to resolve the COVID-19 health crisis. What can be done to make the next pandemic—and there will be one—less traumatic? They see where the holes are. Copyright © 2010–2021, The Conversation US, Inc. Health workers stand ready to apply sanitising gel on people’s hands at a market in Taipei in May 2020, as Taiwan began loosening its COVID-19 restrictions. The COVID-19 pandemic wasn’t the first to devastate the world and it won’t be the last. Morens DM, Fauci AS. And it’s hard to fight the 2 main things that drive the threat, Aronoff says: evolution and opportunism. We can predict that with reasonable confidence because of the recent increased frequency of major epidemics (such as SARS and Ebola), and because of social and environmental changes driven by humans that may have contributed to COVID-19’s emergence. Stopping the Next Pandemic: In Conversation with Harriet Constable and Jacob Kushner. By Audrey Wilson , an associate editor at Foreign Policy . It took SARS-CoV-2 about 4 months to travel from China to Seattle, Washington, to New York, New York. Up Next. A COVID-19-type pandemic had long been predicted, but scientists’ warnings weren’t heeded. Bats harbour hundreds of diseases that can be harmful to humans, as do pigs, birds and boar. What’s more, it’s very likely, she predicts, that the next pandemic could be due to a respiratory viral pathogen that hasn’t been seen before, because of some kind of mixing of genetic elements from different species. But that doesn’t mean that he, or others in the field, have abandoned preparations for other pathogenic threats. Aronoff is director of the Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, and professor and Addison B. Scoville Jr. Emerging pandemic diseases: How we got to COVID-19. Air Date: April 15, 2021. Then, as now, WHO was criticised for its response to the outbreak. New Zealand hits zero active coronavirus cases. COVID-19 is being referred to as a “once in a century event” – but the next pandemic is likely to hit sooner than you think. Dengue, chikungunya, Zika—they’re all on the move. In a new series, we round up emerging infectious threats that have the potential to erupt into global pandemics. “Infectious disease is a kind of barometer for other causes, geopolitical, social disturbances or inequities, even political,” says Aronoff. As animals and people migrate, searching for a more livable environment, we see vector-borne or insect-borne diseases shift with them. In addition to home-grown pathogens, we have to worry about others that come from far-flung regions. Highly pathogenic influenza viruses currently circulate in wild birds and they have infected humans with mortality rates as high as 60 per cent. We are an island nation vulnerable to introduced infectious diseases, and economically dependent on agriculture and the physical environment. There’s a whole new population of long-term-care residents who are now bedbound, plugged in to lots of devices, meaning catheters, tracheostomy tubes, PEG [percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy] tubes, urinary catheters. University-led efforts, such as One Health Aotearoa, have brought together professionals and researchers from different disciplines. Yet we can and must still do better. The next pandemic. Since 1994, scientists around the world have participated in CASP, or the Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction. We need to act now to protect the human species. And where will it (they) be coming from? As she speaks on a Zoom call, enormous COVID-19 molecules loom over her shoulders, a sad metaphor for these days (“I put the background up for a med student lecture weeks ago, and now I don’t know how to take it down,” she says). For example, countries most affected by SARS (such as Taiwan and Singapore) have tended to respond more quickly and decisively to COVID-19 than other countries. Maybe 3 years down the road, if it seems this really mitigated that issue, then I think it is definitely a win.”. “Any kind of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae, especially the extensively drug-resistant ones, like New Delhi metallo-beta-lactamase–producing Enterobacteriaceae, these are definitely the things to watch for.”. Here are 5 measures to keep it that way, The World Health Organization must answer these hard questions in its coronavirus inquiry, Caring for community to beat coronavirus echoes Indigenous ideas of a good life, New Zealand Health Research Strategy 2017-2027, As collective memory fades, so will our ability to prepare for the next pandemic. Listen 29:03. But we’re also home to an existing indigenous Māori worldview and knowledge system that emphasises interconnectivity between humans, animals and the environment. Fighting this pandemic and preventing the next one will take political action of all kinds, globally, from governments, the scientific community, and individuals—but it is possible. Bill Gates, one of the richest men in the world, has spent the last 20 years funding a global health campaign. This may not be the best time to ask, “What’s next?” But…what’s next? Next Pandemic: Scientists Worry That Another Coronavirus Will Spill Over : Goats and Soda Researchers worry another coronavirus will spill over from a … Akiko Iwasaki, professor of immunobiology at Yale University. The next pandemic could be a sometimes deadly, yeast-like fungal infection known as Candida auris, say experts who describe it as a nearly “perfect pathogen.” The fungus can be fatal, p… COVID-19 was unexpected, but I think the next pandemic will most likely be a form of bird flu. As collective memory fades, so will our ability to prepare for the next pandemic. “As far as long-term concerns,” she adds, “definitely what’s likely to lead to a pandemic state is another respiratory viral pathogen, without a doubt, because these are the things that spread most quickly, that are most transmissible between human beings, and have extensively high viral loads that make it very easy to spread between individuals.”. It’s increasingly hard to treat with antibiotics, and increasingly easy to spread.”. President Joe Biden will deliver remarks on the coronavirus pandemic response next week, the White House said on Friday, as he grapples with a new … We’re the glue. Primed and ready, vaccine developers have progressed at enormous pace, with several COVID-19 vaccine candidates already undergoing clinical trials. Accessed February 24, 2021. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/zika-virus. On Aronoff’s list of concerns: Diseases that might not cause pandemics, but cause small epidemics. However, in some interesting ways, COVID-19 may actually have contributed to the benefits side of the ratio in hospitals. The decisions we make, the policies we put into place, they’re impacting the entire system, and not just the one patient at a time. It’s both a looming and perennial threat.”, On the other hand, Nori says, “That’s what makes this whole area of study so fascinating. The species-mixing element concerns Aronoff as well: As we’ve discovered, many viruses that live in animals can jump to humans. “It’s certainly been a really interesting year for our discipline,” Nori says. So what should we be doing to protect New Zealand from future infectious diseases threats? All rights reserved. Predicting the next pandemic virus is harder than we think Date: April 20, 2021 Source: PLOS Summary: The observation that most of the viruses that … “Potentially,” Nori says. July 20, 2018. Both Aronoff and Nori point to what some of our deadliest contagions have had in common: The viruses were transferred via air. Read more: Read more: “And these are not novel pathogens necessarily, these are things we had before but that were starting to get lots of attention the past few years before COVID-19 because they had become so widespread. “Finally, I think people understand what we try to do on a day-to-day basis. As Anthony Fauci, MD, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), and David Morens, MD, NIAID’s senior scientific adviser, write, this has been “but the latest example of an unexpected, novel, and devastating pandemic disease…[w]e have entered a pandemic era.”1, But while coronaviruses aren’t new to us, COVID-19 shifted our recent experiences with SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome) into hyperspeed. 25 No.3). The Pandemic’s Next Phase Staggering surges and new variants are imperiling leaders from Nepal to Brazil. Well, maybe not a kiss.”, When the world gets back to some kind of normal, maybe it will include some positive change coming out of this health crisis. We’ve also seen a number of rapid reports urging us to learn from this pandemic and past epidemics to protect us from future events – especially by taking an holistic “One Health” approach. It put us on our heels,” David Aronoff, MD, tells Infection Control Today®. Nabarro urged us to show greater leadership and capture that interest, before political and public attention moved on. “I want to advocate for our people. If you really invest in that workforce, the ones leading prevention and patient safety, then collateral damage to the system won’t be nearly as bad. New Zealand has a Centre of Research Excellence in plant biosecurity – but not in animal biosecurity or infectious diseases. Accessed February 4, 2021. https://www.idsociety.org/covid-19-real-time-learning-network/, Zika Virus. “It characterizes the profession that we’re confronted by them on a regular basis.”. There are several potential origin scenarios. “I get particularly nervous about antibiotic-resistant infections that we thought we had control over, but then lost control of. In the meantime, to avoid turning the world into one huge disaster movie, Aronoff warns, “It’s really important that we keep our head in the game.”, “We remain at risk for the foreseeable future,” say both Fauci and Morens. Kamala Harris to tell UN body it's time to prep for next pandemic; Joe Biden's first 100 days: Where he stands on key promises; Joe Biden … It is only a matter of time until bird flu acquires the ability to spread through our community. In their multimedia series, they traveled … Similarly, the World Wide Fund for Nature’s March 2020 report on The Loss of Nature and Rise of Pandemics highlighted the likely animal origin of COVID-19, and how intimately connected the health of humans is to animal and environmental health. Figure Out … Stopping the next pandemic. For instance, last month the Lancet One Health Commission called for more transdisciplinary collaboration to solve complex health challenges. They may have survived COVID-19, but they survive with substantial damage, immunologically and to organs, and then pick up other infections along the way. The next pandemic could be as bad, or even worse. We keep the hospital running, make sure elective surgeries can still happen. This is exactly the type of host who becomes colonized with multidrug-resistant pathogens, which can spread within health care facilities, like long-term care and acute care.”, One of the things that CDC infectious disease experts have found to be a problem, possibly re-emergent due to the COVID-19 pandemic, is carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter, Nori says. Infection prevention has really come into the forefront.”. To avoid future pandemics, he says, we must rethink our relationship with nature and recognize how our choices can lead to dangerous disruptions of the natural world. He has a lot to do in his regular jobs, but like his colleagues in infectious disease, he pretty much dropped everything else to concentrate on COVID-19—“to just lean into it,” he says. There’s always something else on the radar. In the next few decades, we will likely see other pandemics. The author’s in-depth coverage of libraries and the pandemic in 2020 will appear as a special report in the 66th/2021 edition of Library and Book Trade Almanac (Information Today, Inc., June 2021). She also co-developed the Infectious Diseases Society of America and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)’s COVID-19 Real-Time Learning Network2 resource page for stewardship during COVID-19. Moreover, people who have been hospitalized with COVID-19 are particularly vulnerable to all the “old” hospital-acquired infections. Consider COVID-19 chest imaging patterns to prep for next pandemic By Kate Madden Yee, AuntMinnie.com staff writer. Humanity's transgression of ecological limits has caused widespread damage, including a climate emergency, catastrophic loss of biodiversity, and extensive degradation of soils around the world. It’s the convergence of the climate crisis, politics, conflicts…. TOPICS: Next pandemic Nipah Nipah virus can kill as many as three in four people it infects. Here are 5 measures to keep it that way. “But we’re worried because lots of patients, if they’re fortunate enough to survive COVID-19, unfortunately end up in a sort of chronically medicalized state. We hold the fort. Shanin Specter is a founding partner at Kline & Specter. Enter AI. Part of that is that we were not testing as much for C diff, but even if you correct for that, it seems like C diff has maybe not been as much of an issue as some of these other pathogens.”, Does that good thing balance out some of the bad things? Dante Disparte proposes seven ways in which the U.S. government can learn from the COVID-19 pandemic and improve public health protocols to prepare for a future pandemic. So, it’s probably a little too early to celebrate. “We weren’t prepared for it. Read more: Here're top healthcare stocks to include in portfolios before the next pandemic hits our shores By Tezcan Gecgil , InvestorPlace Contributor Apr 1, 2021, 2:29 pm EDT April 1, 2021 Shoring up surveillance and response systems and learning lessons from how the COVID-19 pandemic unfolded will help the world be ready the next time around. “There may not be emerging or entirely new diseases, but arrival in new areas,” Aronoff says. Halting that practice is the only truly sustainable vaccine against the next pandemic. In fact, “we haven’t gone a generation without emerging threats,” Aronoff says. That includes countries like New Zealand, where – despite getting its active COVID-19 cases down to zero in June 2020 – big challenges remain. In fact, given all that’s been going on, and all that could be going on, Nori thinks it’s time for a loud shout-out to IPs. Spillover Warning: How We Can Prevent the Next Pandemic Author David Quammen has tracked the spillover of viruses from animals to humans for more than a decade. CDC Relaxes Mask-Wearing Guidelines for Fully Vaccinated Individuals, COVID-19 Vaccinations for Children as Young as 12 Begin Today, Hot Topics in Infection Prevention: COVID and the Great Outdoors, Vaccine Access, Infection Control Today, April 2021 (Vol. As well as working more effectively together internationally, each country will need its own strategy. Pandemic Readiness Influenza Division • World more crowded, more connected, and the worlds of humans and animals are increasingly converging • If 1918 pandemic were to occur today, it could result in tens of millions deaths But there are signs that some lessons may have been learned. Infectious diseases that we previously eradicated, or things that really should be under control in the year 2021, like cholera, diphtheria, those are reemerging because of regional conflicts.”. © 2021 MJH Life Sciences and Infection Control Today. What pathogen(s) not called COVID-19 should we be most concerned about? New Zealand hits zero active coronavirus cases. “We need more,” Nori says. In a way, SARS-CoV-2 resembled science fiction’s hypothetical dark matter: Its existence could be inferred but couldn’t be clearly defined—until it appeared. The Next Pandemic: Are We Ready? He teaches at UC Hastings, Stanford, Berkeley and Penn law schools. And where will it (they) be coming from? In the next few decades, we will likely see other pandemics. We continue to think about these things when everybody else goes to sleep at night. But more investment is needed to get even better value from such collaborations. “We need more advocacy, we need more resources diverted toward really bolstering very strong IP programs in hospitals and long-term care. Now add in human mobility (as in global travel), and it’s a recipe for another worldwide catastrophe. But while deaths and hospitalizations decrease, health systems are still being stretched thin managing this extraordinary health crisis — and the next pandemic threat may soon arrive. As soon as COVID-19 starts calming down because of control measures and vaccinations, I think we’re going to unmask all these other things that COVID-19 left in its wake.”, One reason, she says, is that there was a lot of excess antibiotic use, especially in the early stages of the pandemic, which has probably abated now that people are more aware of how the disease works and its long-term effects. The Next Pandemic. “TB is a great example. World Health Organization. It’s a disease that’s been around forever, but scares us in ID as a newly forming threat. What’s awesome, though, is that the new CDC director [Rochelle Walensky, MD, MPH,] is an infectious disease physician who practiced medicine. However, the next big threat could also very well be an old one. He speaks to the way infectious disease experts live now—always on the qui vive for the next pathogenic threat. Our research institutions and universities have engaged quickly and effectively to provide scientific support for the public health response. The cost of preventing the next pandemic is 2% of the cost we’re paying for COVID-19. In the wake of the Ebola outbreak, politicians were more focused on public health than ever before. “If this country, the world, successfully emerge from this whole crisis…thank your neighborhood IP, basically.” She chuckles. JAN DYER is a writer and editor specializing in clinical topics. What pathogen(s) not called COVID-19 should we be most concerned about? COVID-19 real-time learning network. Priya Nori, MD, also puts antibiotic-resistant infections at the top of her list. It’s possible to be frozen in anxiety and fear about what’s next, but this is what we’re trained to do. Wrong. All rights reserved. Shanin Specter. But what happens if the next pandemic is an entirely new type of virus that scientists haven’t conducted research on already? In many ways, the world has been becoming more hospitable to pathogens we thought we’d seen the end of. Right now, while we have the full attention of politicians and other key decision-makers, we need to start rethinking our approaches to future preparedness internationally and within our own nations. It hits on all cylinders: crowding, lack of effective vaccines, malnutrition, poverty. We might not have been prepared for COVID-19, he says, “but we’ve learned lessons about how to deal with other pathogens. It should force us to begin to think in earnest and collectively about living in more thoughtful and creative harmony with nature, even as we plan for nature’s inevitable, and always unexpected, surprises.”. As winter turns to spring turns to summer, hope has been rising that the COVID-19 pandemic … Less than five years ago, I was one of about 100 global experts invited to a World Health Organization (WHO) meeting in Geneva, prompted by the then ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa. Preventing the next pandemic depends on understanding the origins of this one. Nori says, “Because of the really heightened control measures for COVID-19 in hospitals, somehow Clostridioides difficile has not played a role in this as we initially thought. Pathogens like cholera, diphtheria, tuberculosis (TB), and malaria take advantage of people gathering or living in crowded spaces, people with already poor health. With the current pandemic running everyone in health care ragged, this may not be the best time to ask, “What’s next?” But…what’s next? “But then you worry that you’re just sort of squeezing the balloon, and that one thing gets better but at the expense of another thing. She lives in Suffern, New York. Crucially, we need a new generation of scientists and professionals who are systems thinkers and comfortable working with multiple disciplines and across the human-animal-environment interface. This includes up-to-date information from infectious diseases physicians, pharmacists, and infection preventionists (IPs) on personal protective equipment, vaccines, therapeutics, stewardship—“anything you can think of related to the pandemic,” she says. She gets it. … Write an article and join a growing community of more than 126,800 academics and researchers from 4,019 institutions. Zika, for one, started out in a relatively small area of the world, and is now found in 86 countries and territories.3, It all sounds ominous, but Aronoff is reassuring, in a restrained sort of way. We need to strengthen capability in such areas as epidemiology, modelling and outbreak management, and build pandemic plans that are flexible enough to respond to all eventualities. Another factor, climate change, is also driving changes in infectious disease. The one time the military tried a sort of simulated war game against a smallpox pandemic, the final score was "smallpox one, humanity zero," Gates said. It took the Black Plague roughly 2 years to travel from Italy to Scandinavia. COVID-19 is being referred to as a “once in a century event” – but the next pandemic is likely to hit sooner than you think. And we need the kind of leadership Nabarro called for: science-informed and forward-looking, rather than reactive. In other words, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may have taken a lot of people by surprise, but its possibility wasn’t in doubt. On Thursday, May 20, at 12:00pm EDT, join journalists Harriet Constable and Jacob Kushner for a conversation about their project, Stopping the Next One: Scientists Race to Prevent Human Encroachment on Wildlife From Causing the Next Pandemic. What’s more, it’s very likely, she predicts, that the next pandemic could be due to a respiratory viral pathogen that hasn’t been seen before, because of some kind of mixing of genetic elements from different species. We’re trained to look for emerging threats and figure out how to deal with them.”. The reality is that plagues have been a part of human life since hunter-gatherer days—it’s just that nowadays the diseases get around the world much faster. David Murdoch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment. This requires a culture change so research is regarded as business as usual for district health boards, providing the science needed to inform policy, preparedness and best practice. So it’s their fault right? He stressed the importance of trust, respect, transparent communication, and working with nature. Based On Pandemic Success, ‘Climate Lockdowns’ Are Next – David Icke – BLN March 27, 2021 1:05 am Read More: Based On Pandemic Success, ‘Climate Lockdowns’ Are Next […] She gets what we all do, and I think once the dust settles on all this, she’s going to be a tremendous advocate for IPs.”, As we scrounge for silver linings to the COVID-19 cloud, one might be the growing recognition of how crucial the IP job is. “COVID-19 is among the most vivid wake-up calls in over a century. We also need to better integrate science and research into the health system, a key feature of the New Zealand Health Research Strategy 2017-2027. Is the next pandemic inevitable? Chair in Medicine at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. And we’re living on a street that’s all corners.”. 19 March 2021 – by Priya Joi No one has yet brought together our knowledge of COVID-19 in a comprehensive, informative, and accessible way. The World Health Organization must answer these hard questions in its coronavirus inquiry. Dean and Head of Campus, University of Otago, Christchurch, University of Otago. © 2021 MJH Life Sciences™ and Infection Control Today. The volume and pace of sharing scientific information about COVID-19 has been unprecedented. We now need to see this at all levels of health, research and politics to get us out of this pandemic in the best shape possible – and be better prepared for our next pandemic. Finally, I think the next pathogenic threat pandemic Nipah Nipah virus can kill as many three! From 4,019 institutions been hospitalized with COVID-19 are particularly vulnerable to all the “ old ” hospital-acquired infections working! We try to do on a day-to-day basis few decades, we have seen good leadership based science. What can be done to make the next pandemic—and there will be one—less traumatic Centers for disease Control prevention! 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